Help wanted: chief economist

First you lose your top lobbyist to the title insurers. Now your chief economist is going to Fannie Mae? What's wrong, is life just not exciting enough at the Mortgage Bankers Association these days?

Actually, the MBA is busier than ever, lobbying Congress not to exacerbate the credit crunch by going overboard with new restrictions on lenders and slugging it out in the media with consumer groups like the Center for Responsible Lending over the root causes of the housing downturn and the best way out of the quagmire.

The first job -- lobbying Congress -- belonged to Kurt Pfotenhauer, who last month left the MBA to become chief executive officer of the American Land Title Association (see Inman News story). Gee, what could the title insurance industry possibly want from Congress?

Now -- in what might also be characterized as a leap out of the frying pan and into the fire -- MBA's chief economist, Doug Duncan, is leaving to become vice president and chief economist for Fannie Mae.

Although CRL and MBA have had their differences, it's hard to argue with MBA president Jonathan Kempner when he says in a statement that "MBA has become one of the most trusted sources of economic analysis on the housing industry" and that "Doug Duncan has been a major reason why."

Duncan DID spend a lot of time last year emphasizing the role that economic factors like layoffs -- as opposed to risky loans -- played in foreclosures in the Midwest. But he also acknowledged the role loose underwriting standards played in states where speculators ran rampant, such as California, Florida and Nevada. Duncan's "spin" seemed geared to making sure everyone understood that there was more than one story playing out in different regions of the country, rather than deflecting blame from mortgage bankers (who, some would argue, were less responsible for the excesses in lending during the boom than mortgage brokers).

Duncan's forecasts during the downturn have tended to be closer to the mark than those of some other industry experts and, by all indications, Fannie (and Freddie, and just about anybody else trying to make a buck in mortgages) can use all the insight they can get right now.

All rights reserved. This article may not be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever, in part or in whole, without written permission of Inman News. Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright law.